On 29 April 2009, BPP Holdings, the UK professional training company, announced it received a preliminary approach from Apollo Global at a price of 620 pence in cash per share. With an almost 100% freefloat, and Schroders, BPP’s largest shareholder with around 17.4% of the shares, receptive to the approach, we believe that a firm bid for BPP from Apollo is likely: Apollo has no existing operations in Europe, with BPP being a robust business and very well positioned in a resilient market. Apollo Global has confirmed that any offer would not be subject to external financing conditionality. Any regulatory or other issues preventing a combination seem unlikely. With BPP trading at GBP5.50, there is 12.7% or 70 basispoints upside on the materialisation of a firm bid. Further upside could be generated by a competitive bidding situation with other parties as Pearson, who might want to get further presence in the UK/European training market. However in the low probability scenario of Apollo walking away, the downside could be more than the GBP 3.5 it was trading before the approach statement, given that BPP’s liquidity was limited ahead of the approach announcement and would dry up again if Apollo walks
UPDATE 08 JUNE 2008: APOLLO HAS MADE A RECOMMENDED CASH OFFER OF 620P, TO BE EFFECTED BY MEANS OF A SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT. IRREVOCABLES 0.1%. SCHEME EXPECTED TO BECOME EFFECTIVE ON OR AROUND JULY 31ST. With the short duration of the scheme to be completed, we remain holders of BPP LN, given its low chance of rival offer of the likes of Pearson.
In : European Event-Driven Situations