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Showing category "European Event-Driven Situations" (Show all posts)

Cadbury plc: The Hershey angle

Posted by PG on Monday, January 18, 2010, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
We have looked at Cadbury plc, the UK confectionery company, which is currently being targeted by Kraft Foods. Given Kraft's 19 January 2010 deadline to revise its bid, and Hershey's 23 January 2010 deadline to make a competing offer, we have analyzed the trading opportunities for Cadbury and Hershey with respect to timing, upside/downside and dynamics.

For further discussion and conclusion, please access the Panta Client Section

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REpower Systems AG: Suzlon at Play?

Posted by PG on Tuesday, January 5, 2010, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
We have looked at REpower Systems AG, the German wind power company, which is currently 91% owned by Suzlon Energy, the Indian wind power company. We have analyzed the trading opportunities around this situation with respect to timing, upside/downside and dynamics.

For further discussion and conclusion, please access the Panta Client Section

 

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Cimpor SG: Strategic Portugal based cement company in play

Posted by PG on Monday, January 4, 2010, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
We have looked at Cimpor SG, the Portugal based cement maker, which received a €5.75 per share cash offer on 18-Dec-09 from CSN, the Brazilian steelmaker and iron smelter.

For further discussion and conclusion on the situation, please access the Panta Client Section. 

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Shanks Group plc: Short-term short opportunity

Posted by PG on Tuesday, December 8, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
We have analyzed the Shanks Group plc pre-deal situation. Shanks stated on 07-Dec-09 that it had received a highly preliminary and unsolicited approach from a private equity group regarding a potential cash offer of 135p per Shanks share. We have looked at the upside/downside dynamics for the current 130p share price. Given that the PE firm might have difficulties both to have access to high leverage and to generate attractive IRRs for such a transaction, we believe that there is a risk of no...
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Minerva plc: Attractive upside/downside in London property company bid

Posted by PG on Monday, November 23, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 

We have analyzed the Minerva plc situation, which on 17-Nov-09 received an unsolicited 50p or £84.5m cash offer from Kifin Limited, Minerva's 29.9% shareholder. Given the developments for Minerva in the last 12 months, we believe the offer is highly opportunistic . We have looked at the bid history, the upside and possible drawdown for the Minerva investment case, and believe Minerva's current share price represents a buying opportunity for this smaller capitalized company, which might be ...


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Hochtief AG: Clear catalysts now to realize value in the Hochtief ex-Leighton holdings stub trade

Posted by PG on Wednesday, November 18, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
Since Reuters today reported that Hochtief is tomorrow sending out the prospectus for the listing of its concessions infrastructure unit, with investor roadshows set to begin on Friday, we revisited the case of the Hochtief ex-Leighton Holdings strub trade, which is highly undervalued with the very clear catalyst in play now to realize the value mismatch.  For full analysis of the situation, please access the Panta Client Section.
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Tandberg ASA: Is the revised NOK170 offer a done deal now?

Posted by PG on Wednesday, November 18, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
Panta Capital analyzed the revised Tandberg offer situation, and looked whether or not Tandberg's current NOK 162 price actually represents a buying opportunity or not. For full comment, please access Panta Client Section.
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Tandberg: Open letter to Cisco Management

Posted by PG on Friday, November 6, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 

London/Zurich, 06 November 2009

 

RE: Open letter to Cisco on the proposed acquisition of Tandberg

 

Dear Mr. Chambers, Dear Mr. Hooper,

 

Since making a public offer to shareholders you have also made comments to the press regarding the value of your offer and on Cisco’s broader M&A principles. As we near the end of your offer period and on behalf of Tandberg shareholders, we feel it necessary to address certain points on the value of your offer with you directly.

 

While we full...


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Tandberg ASA: Counterbid possible for Cisco's recommended NOK 153.5 per share offer

Posted by PG on Thursday, October 1, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
As highlighted in our Aug-09 entry, the high likelihood of a bid for Tandberg ASA materialized today with a recommended NOK 153.5 per share bid for Tandberg from Cisco, the US technology mammoth. The Cisco bid comes after 15 months of speculation of any possible bid for the company. The offer, which is not subject on any financing, is fully recommended by Tandberg's board. The offer is expected to close 1H10 and should not have any regulatory issues as Cisco has very limited presence in the v...
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Just Retirement plc: Recommended 76p a share from Permira

Posted by PG on Friday, September 25, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
As anticipated by Panta Capital on 22-Sep-09, Just Retirement (JR/ LN) reached agreement on the terms of a recommended bid by Avalon, a newly incorporated company owned by funds advised by Permira Advisers. Under the terms of the proposal, Just Retirement shareholders will receive 76p cash per share, and will be implemented by a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement.

The scheme -which has no competition approval risk- has already received irrevocables/acceptances of 67.3% of Just Retirement's...
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Just Retirement plc: Attractive short duration trade

Posted by PG on Tuesday, September 22, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
On 26-Jun-09, Permira, the UK private equity fund, announced that it was considering a possible offer of 76p a share for Just Retirement plc, the UK life assurance group. This announcement followed more than 10 months after Just Retirement said it had received expressions of interest in the company - which apparently had come after its 52.29% founder/shareholder -Langholm Capital- had initiated a possible sale of the company.

Since the Jun-09 provisional 76p offer announcement, Just Retirement...

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Heidelberger Druckmaschinen: Sell on manroland merger news strength

Posted by PG on Monday, September 7, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
Several German media have been reporting that Heidelberg Druckmaschinen AG (HDD GY), the German based number one global offset printing press maker, is considering a merger with manroland AG, the privately owned global number two player. Although not confirmed by either company, the reports have been mentioning that both companies have hired investment banks to advise on a potential deal, and that the talks have been triggered by Allianz, which owns 65% of manroland and 12% of Heidelberg.

Alt...
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National Express Group: Board recommendation expected for the 500p bid

Posted by PG on Friday, September 4, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
After the Cosmen family - CVC Partners bid consortium raised their indicative cash offer on 03-Sep-09 from 450p to 500p a share for National Express Group (NEX LN), the UK bus and train operator, its current 465p share price (or 7.5% spread to the 500p price) reflects the risk of the unmaterialisation of a succesful firm bid from the consortium.

Although the indicative cash offer is conditional on financing and due diligence, we believe the main risk is obtaining shareholder willingness and B...
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Austrian Airlines: EC clears Lufthansa deal

Posted by PG on Friday, August 28, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
As expected in our 02-Jun-09 entry, the European Commission has today both approved the proposed acquisition of Austrian Airlines by Lufthansa AG, and the State Aid. This means that now all green lights have been given for the acquisition, and Austrian Airlines' shareholders will receive the EUR 4.49 cash per share.
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Tandberg ASA: Attractive stand-alone valuation with free bid optionality

Posted by PG on Tuesday, August 4, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 

On 16 July 2009, Tandberg ASA (TAA NO - TADBF.PK), the Norwegian videoconferencing company, was rumoured again to have received an expression of interest from a private equity firm. This rumour follows last August's announcement that Tandberg was approached by a PE player. We believe that the PE player in question is Silver Lake Partners, a $10bn technology specialty fund, which is re-evaluating the deal it abandoned last year when the financing fell through: an acquisition of Tandberg would ...
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Thomson SA: Debt deal to resuscitate equity value

Posted by PG on Thursday, July 30, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
On 24 July 2009, Thomson SA (TMS FP) said it had signed a balance sheet restructuring agreement with the majority of its creditors. The agreement stipulates 1) a 45% cut in its gross senior debt (from EUR 2.83bn to EUR 1.55bn) by converting it to equity in form of a EUR 350m rights issue,  EUR 528m notes redeemable in shares ('NRSs') and Disposable Proceeds Notes ('DPNs'); 2) the renegotiation of terms of the remaining gross debt with longer payment maturities and conditions more compatible w...
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Wessanen: Amended credit facility limits downside overhang

Posted by PG on Thursday, July 23, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
As anticipated by Panta Capital in its 18-Jun-09 analysis, Wessanen announced today it had amended its EUR 250m credit facility, increasing its net debt to consolidated EBITDAE to 4x in 2009 and to 3.5x in the first half of 2010. Under the original facility, net debt was allowed to exceed 3x consolidated EBITDAE for a limited period only and not allowed to exceed 3.5x. At 01-Mar-09, Wessanen reported a net debt to EBITDAE ratio of 3.2x.

Although we feel that this might put increased time pres...
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Venture Production: Centrica bids 845p a share

Posted by PG on Sunday, July 12, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 

As anticipated in our 02-June blog, Centrica has come up with a GBP 8.45 a share cash offer for Venture Production on 10-Jul-09. The offer was made after Centrica secured the additional 5.4% stake from 3i Group to bring its ownership in Venture to  29%. Although we feel the offer is highly opportunistic - and hence was almost immediately rejected by the Venture board as substantially undervaluing its business- we feel that there is a good chance Centrica's offer might be succesful, give...


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Hermes International: Short trading stock - expect unjustified take over premium to deflate AGAIN

Posted by PG on Saturday, July 4, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
With Hermes (RMS FP) trading at a 100%+ premium to the luxury goods sector, mainly supported by the largely unsubstantiated takeover speculation, Hermes stock is again highly vulnerable to a re-rating which could be driven by the speculative appeal to vanish.  Similar to what happened mid-07 and early-09, we expect the unjustified take over premium to phase out and the large premium to sector average to compress in the short term. Ideally to start shorting around EUR 105-110 levels, and take ...
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Wessanen: Expected sale of its US businesses to release value. Stock overreaction after accounting blip announcement

Posted by PG on Thursday, June 18, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
On 22 April 2009, Koninklijke Wessanen NV announced its plans to look into exiting its US distribution and branded businesses. (constituting 60% of group sales and 40% of its EBIT).  On 10 June 2009, Wessanen communicated it was in an 'orientation' phase to determine the sale price of its US businesses. On 15 June 2009, Wessanen announced on 15 June 2009 that it discovered accounting irregularities in its US branded business.

Wessanen fell 25% of 67c to EUR 2.6 after its accounting irregulari...
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BPP Holdings: Apollo coming to bid?

Posted by PG on Tuesday, June 2, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
On 29 April 2009, BPP Holdings, the UK professional training company, announced it received a preliminary approach from Apollo Global at a price of 620 pence in cash per share. With an almost 100% freefloat, and Schroders, BPP’s largest shareholder with around 17.4% of the shares, receptive to the approach, we believe that a firm bid for BPP from Apollo is likely: Apollo has no existing operations in Europe, with BPP being a robust business and very well positioned in a resilient market. A...
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Austrian Airlines: 12.5% spread overcautious for the merger risk

Posted by PG on Tuesday, June 2, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
With a EUR 4.49 per share cash offer ready for implementation, Lufthansa's take over for Austrian Airlines (AUA2:AV) is still subject to Europe's scrutiny on both the state aid it received from Austria and the merger competition from Europe's merger council. Given firstly that state aid was approved by Europe for the likes of Olympic Airways in Greece, and that secondly Lufthansa would be willing to offer concessions on some of the overlapping routes, we believe that with Austrian trading a...
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Venture Production: Bid optionality

Posted by PG on Tuesday, June 2, 2009, In : European Event-Driven Situations 
Given John Paulson's theorem of protecting the downside while the upside will take care of itself, I wanted to highlight one UK company that displays a resilient growth profile, with a possible bid coming along:

Venture Production plc VPC LN
: After Centrica, the UK energy company, bought a 23% stake at 725p a share on 18 March 2009, it indicated it could possibly make a full cash offer for Venture. However, immediately thereafter the Board at Centrica indicated that that this 725p price a shar...
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